From Jorge

Some weeks hand you a theme whether you want one or not — this one was all about reality checks. Mexican craft brewers realized the U.S. isn’t the dream market they hoped for, and Spain happily opened the door instead. Baja California Sur was reminded (again) that we’re living on borrowed water, with the new national water law stepping in to force a reckoning. Then came the EMBRACE IT tourist tax, which somehow manages to be mandatory, digital-only, and still confusing. And in the background, foreign owners keep asking me the same question: “Is my fideicomiso actually in good shape?

.

Subject of the Week

.

I’ll start with something simple: I enjoy a good beer now and then, but I’m not a beer fanatic. I’m not the guy debating hops, bitterness levels, or barrel-aging techniques. What does catch my attention, though, is business strategy, especially when a familiar Mexican product finds itself at the center of a global shift.

And right now, Mexican craft beer is living one of those turning points.
Not loud, not dramatic, but very real.

Over the last few years, I’ve watched Mexican craft brewers, some of them from right here in Baja, quietly change course. Many originally set their sights on the U.S., where Mexican beer is practically part of the cultural wallpaper. But after running into a mix of economic, regulatory, and post-pandemic headwinds, a surprising new destination opened up:

Spain.

Yes, Spain, the land of sobremesa, tapas, and late-afternoon socializing, has become a far more welcoming home for Mexican craft beer than the U.S. market ever was.

Let me break down how we got here.

Mexico’s Craft Beer Scene Is Growing, Just Not Easily

Our craft beer market has been expanding fast, projected at nearly 10% Compound Annual Growth Rate through 2033, with Baja California leading the charge. Cities like Tijuana, Ensenada, Mexicali, and Guadalajara are now well-known for small breweries doing genuinely interesting work with regional ingredients.

But behind this creative boom sits a stubborn reality:

Craft brewers face the same heavy taxes as industrial giants, around 42.5%.

No special treatment. No preferential rate. No encouragement for small producers.

When your competition includes massive corporate operations with unmatched distribution and scale, that tax rate is a brick wall. Add the duopoly’s dominance of shelf space and supply chains, and it's no surprise that many small breweries struggle to grow beyond their immediate region.

So naturally, they looked north.

Why the U.S. Looked Like the Next Big Step, Until It Didn’t

For years, the U.S. seemed like the obvious expansion market. After all, 66% of all Mexican beer exports already go there, mostly industrial brands. The logic was: American consumers like Mexican beer, so craft should fit right in.

But then a cluster of challenges hit at the same time:

1. Tariffs and packaging costs skyrocketed

U.S. tariffs on Chinese glass and a 50% tariff on aluminum suddenly made bottles and cans more expensive, especially for small brewers relying on low-volume orders.

2. Post-pandemic inflation changed consumer habits

People went out less, spent less, and bought cheaper alternatives. Premium craft beer took the first hit.

3. A broader shift toward moderation

Globally, consumers are drinking less alcohol, not more. When the pie shrinks, fewer brands get a slice.

In short, the U.S. became a harder, more expensive, and less predictable place to grow.

That forced Mexican brewers to rethink the map.

Spain Steps In, Not by Accident, but by Alignment

While the U.S. tightened, Spain opened.

Cervecería de Colima, one of the clearest examples, shifted its strategy and placed products in nearly 100 locations across Spain, from Madrid to Barcelona to Ibiza. And they’re not alone.

Why Spain?

Because the market’s cultural habits happen to fit perfectly with premium craft beer:

Spain rewards flavor, story, and craftsmanship. It’s not about volume, it's about identity and experience. That’s a perfect match for Mexican craft beer, which competes on quality, not on price or scale.

New Global Trends Are Also Helping Mexican Brewers

The real strategic opportunity isn’t only in geography, it's in the changing nature of consumption:

Low- and no-alcohol beer is expanding fast, especially in Europe.

Some Mexican breweries already report 10–15% of their sales from non-alcoholic versions.

Premiumization keeps rising

Consumers prefer “better” even if it means “less.” Craft fits this shift.

Unique ingredients and local identity

Mexican craft beer has a built-in advantage: heritage, spices, fruits, and traditional grains that no European competitor can copy.

Put that together, and Mexican craft brewers find themselves better positioned abroad than in their own backyard.

My Perspective Watching This Move From the Outside

I'm not reading this as someone who judges beer by its aroma. I read it the way I read any shifting market:
Where is the smart strategy heading, and why?

What I see is this:

This isn’t about abandoning the U.S. It’s about choosing the market that values what you bring to the table.

And honestly? It’s a subtle reminder that Mexican products, when done well, often earn more recognition abroad before they get the respect they deserve at home.

Final Thought

To me, the interesting part isn’t the beer.
It’s the strategy behind it.

Mexican craft brewers didn’t just pivot, they adapted, read the room, and found a market ready for what they make.

That’s not a beer story.
That’s a business story.
And a very good one.

.

This week’s lens: visibility versus surprises.

Most foreign owners never open their fideicomiso again after closing.
Not out of neglect, out of survival.
It’s long, it’s technical, and yes… it’s in Spanish.

So it sits there quietly.
Until something important is suddenly couple of months away, a sale, a refinancing (if you can get it), an amendment, and that’s when the surprises begin to surface.

Surprises like:

None of this feels urgent… until it is.

The Real Pattern We See

The owners who glide through closings aren’t the ones with perfect documents.
They’re the ones who look early.

The ones who say,
“I’d rather know now than when someone else is waiting on me.”

This is exactly why we develop Onsite Analytics: a way to turn a dense, Spanish-language instrument into a clear English explanation of what you own, where the gaps are, and what needs attention before anything important hits your calendar.

It’s $289 USD, but more importantly, it’s preventive medicine for real estate stress.

The Entry Point: The Mini-Scan

Not ready for the full review?
Start with the step everyone understands:

If something looks off, you’ll know.
If everything is solid, you’ll know that too.

And because momentum matters, the Mini-Scan gives you a $100 credit toward the full Onsite Analytics Report if you choose to continue.

Visit www.ilt.com.mx to start.
Once your Mini-Scan is done, you’ll open your complimentary ILT dashboard, where we download, curate, and organize your property information for future use.

That single step often saves weeks in future transactions.

Why This Matters (Now)

A fideicomiso isn’t a problem, it’s a system.
Systems only break when no one is looking at them.

A quick Mini-Scan puts eyes on the parts that matter most and gives you a roadmap before deadlines do.

If your document has been sitting untouched for years, this is your low-effort, high-clarity moment.

📄 Start your Mini-Scan at www.ilt.com.mx
Just drag and drop. Your future closing will thank you.

Questions? Write us at [email protected] or visit ilt.com.mx to get started.

.

.

This week I went deeper into the details of Baja California Sur’s EMBRACE IT tax, and the more I read, the more I realized how many moving pieces are hiding behind this “simple” visitor fee. In short: the state has made the tax mandatory for every foreign visitor staying more than 24 hours, set at $470 pesos, payable only online through Travelkore. The goal is straightforward enough, support environmental conservation, improve infrastructure, and fund community development. Through a financial and political lens, it’s the state’s attempt to formalize what many destinations around the world already do: ask visitors to help shoulder the cost of keeping the place livable.

But here’s where things get wobbly. Despite the state confirming the tax is active and already generating revenue, parts of the tourism industry, including representatives in Los Cabos, publicly say the tax is not being applied because “no formal framework exists.” So we now have a mandatory tax that somehow exists and doesn’t exist at the same time. Only in Baja do we manage to create a tourism “Required, Recommended and Optional tax” all at once, where the QR code is both required and optional depending on which official you asked before your morning coffee.

What does concern me is the impact on perception and predictability. Visitors are told to pay online before or upon arrival, yet the enforcement on the ground varies wildly. Meanwhile, the state projects 256 million pesos in revenue for 2025, which tells you how committed they are to this model moving forward. Through an investor and property-owner lens, this inconsistency matters: policies that affect the tourism economy affect all of us. Clarity is the real currency here, and until the messaging stabilizes, we’re all left interpreting a tax that isn’t going away — even if parts of the industry still pretend it hasn’t arrived.

.

.